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Sunday, July 1, 2012

What is Wrong with US Politics

As everyone knows, the political climate in the US is getting more and more polarized.  Politicians on the left and right take "principled stands" for positions at one extreme or the other.  This is for good reason.  If they don't they won't get elected.   They know this.   The reason for this is because so few American's vote.  Winning is all about getting enough people who agree with your positions, who might sit home, to go to the poles.   The number of people who agree with these extreme positions is usually not nearly a majority of the electorate, just more than those who disagree and turn out to vote.  So, the best strategy for winning is to "energize" your base by demonizing your opponent and predicting apocalyptic consequences if they win.  This strategy works because not enough people vote.  This strategy does not produce politicians who represent the consensus of the majority.

In this situation the incumbent is always at a disadvantage since he/she has to make policy and govern.   And, if they want to get re-elected, those policies have to pander to the extremes that got them elected.   All of this makes the incumbent an easy target for criticism and dooms-day predictions by those on the opposite extreme.  Which helps his/her opponent energize their base.

Most independent poles show that the American people, as a whole, are not any more polarized then in the past.  If everyone, or at lease most people,  voted then the "get the base energized and turn them out" wouldn't work.  They would be at the poles anyway.   The only strategy left would be to be to come up with broadly appealing platforms that would, of necessity, be near the center of popular opinion.  Changes in policy would be slow and require changing the opinions of the majority instead of whipping up fear and hatred in a vocal minority.
As it is, with low turnout necessitating the "energize and turn out the base" strategy, American politics will swing ever more wildly from right extreme, to left extreme, and back again, making the most powerful country in the world ever more unstable as its policies veer back and forth.
In this country to only way to ensure that most Americans vote is to make voting mandatory.   Of course this is unlikely to happen because more and more of the politicians from both extremes fear this.   They got elected by going to the extreme and vilifying their opponents.  They know that they would not be likely to get elected if suddenly everyone was voting and they had to appeal to a real majority of Americans.  Since this is not going to happen I expect American policy to continue to wobble from one extreme to the other and the American electorate to be more segmented between minorities voters at the extremes and a growing disaffected group of non-voting moderates. 

1 comment:

  1. It is the end of the campaign season and it is obvious I overlooked an important part of the voting turnout issue. The Electoral College system, in which each state gets a fixed number of delegates who cast the actual votes for the candidates, greatly discourages a large number of people from voting. If a candidate gets the majority of votes in a state then all of the delegates from that state will vote for the candidate. Since many states are not in contention, i.e. the majority of the voters will clearly vote for one candidate there is little incentive to vote knowing that it will not have any effect on the delegates. To encourage participation and to ensure that the winner of the popular vote is also the winner of the election this antiquated mechanism should be eliminated. The president should be elected directly by popular vote. This would clearly increase voter participation.

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