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Sunday, July 15, 2012

Copyright is dead

For those of us over the age of 40, let me tell you the concept of copyright is dead.  I believe most people under 40 know this.  Those under 30, consciously or unconsciously, take for granted that they can get a copy of anything that can be digitized without paying for it.  The government, many commercial enterprises, and many individuals that rely on copyright to make profit or earn a living are slowly coming to the realization that copyright is no longer enforceable.   In the Internet age it is simply too easy to make perfect copies of anything that can be digitized.  It is also easy to post it on the web.  Once on the web it is thoroughly out of the control of the copyright holder.  It is impossible to know how may times a work has been copied and by who and to where.

For what its worth, I like the concept of copyright.  I think people should be able to make money from their works.  I don't make illegal copies of copyrighted information or encourage anyone else to.  I merely acknowledge the writing on the wall.  Eventually governments around the world will have to accept their inability to enforce copyright and it will become a quaint relic of the past.  The Internet will, again, prove to be an ungovernable, lawless, place.   Given the choice between an ungoverned Internet and a highly censored and controlled Internet most people will choose the former.   This will provide enough space for copyright piracy to flourish beyond government control.

Of course the end of copyright will have enormous economic consequences but eventually the world will adjust and will move on.  Brave New World.

Sunday, July 1, 2012

What is Wrong with US Politics

As everyone knows, the political climate in the US is getting more and more polarized.  Politicians on the left and right take "principled stands" for positions at one extreme or the other.  This is for good reason.  If they don't they won't get elected.   They know this.   The reason for this is because so few American's vote.  Winning is all about getting enough people who agree with your positions, who might sit home, to go to the poles.   The number of people who agree with these extreme positions is usually not nearly a majority of the electorate, just more than those who disagree and turn out to vote.  So, the best strategy for winning is to "energize" your base by demonizing your opponent and predicting apocalyptic consequences if they win.  This strategy works because not enough people vote.  This strategy does not produce politicians who represent the consensus of the majority.

In this situation the incumbent is always at a disadvantage since he/she has to make policy and govern.   And, if they want to get re-elected, those policies have to pander to the extremes that got them elected.   All of this makes the incumbent an easy target for criticism and dooms-day predictions by those on the opposite extreme.  Which helps his/her opponent energize their base.

Most independent poles show that the American people, as a whole, are not any more polarized then in the past.  If everyone, or at lease most people,  voted then the "get the base energized and turn them out" wouldn't work.  They would be at the poles anyway.   The only strategy left would be to be to come up with broadly appealing platforms that would, of necessity, be near the center of popular opinion.  Changes in policy would be slow and require changing the opinions of the majority instead of whipping up fear and hatred in a vocal minority.
As it is, with low turnout necessitating the "energize and turn out the base" strategy, American politics will swing ever more wildly from right extreme, to left extreme, and back again, making the most powerful country in the world ever more unstable as its policies veer back and forth.
In this country to only way to ensure that most Americans vote is to make voting mandatory.   Of course this is unlikely to happen because more and more of the politicians from both extremes fear this.   They got elected by going to the extreme and vilifying their opponents.  They know that they would not be likely to get elected if suddenly everyone was voting and they had to appeal to a real majority of Americans.  Since this is not going to happen I expect American policy to continue to wobble from one extreme to the other and the American electorate to be more segmented between minorities voters at the extremes and a growing disaffected group of non-voting moderates. 

Sunday, April 29, 2012

test

This is a test post.  This is only a test of the emergency blog post system.  If it were not a test you would be reading some uncommon point of view on life, the world, or dust balls.  Ounce again, this is only a test.